NFL week command center

Week 1 wrap · Week 2

Week 1 wrapping · MNF DEN@KC tonight · Week 2 Thu DET@BUF

Wed Sep 9 – Mon Sep 21, 2026

Last refresh Mon Sep 14, 2026 · 8:05 AM ET · posted BetMGM · shop DK / FD / PIN

Sun Sep 13 graded · TD scorers

Mon Sep 14, 2026 · 8:05 AM ET · GRADED. Anytime 3–2 · first TD 2–1. Not Cipher.

Top 5 anytime TD

1
Javonte WilliamsDAL @ NYG · 12-41-1 rush · 5-31-1 recWIN-175
2
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO · 29-156-2WIN-265
3
Derrick HenryBAL @ IND · 24-144-3WIN-205
4
Saquon BarkleyPHI vs WSH · 15-83-0LOSSrank
5
James CookBUF @ HOU · 13-57-0LOSSrank

Top 3 first TD

1
Jonathan TaylorIND vs BAL · first TD · 19-98-2WINrank
2
James CookBUF @ HOU · 13-57-0LOSSrank
3
Jahmyr GibbsDET vs NO · first TD · 29-156-2WINrank

GRADED. Anytime 3–2 (Javonte, Gibbs, Henry). First TD 2–1 (Taylor, Gibbs). Tracking 8 was 6–2. Ranks were not House / Cipher / Ladder / Overseas.

Week 2 slate · Mon Sep 14, 2026 · 8:05 AM ET

ESPN morning numbers. Lab only. Not Official. MNF tonight first.

DET @ BUFThu 8:15 PM ET · BUF −3.5 · O/U 53.5
CAR @ ATLSun 1:00 PM ET · CAR −1.5 · O/U 43.5
MIN @ CHISun 1:00 PM ET · CHI −5.5 · O/U 49.5
PHI @ TENSun 1:00 PM ET · PHI −7 · O/U 40.5
PIT @ NESun 1:00 PM ET · NE −5.5 · O/U 41.5
GB @ NYJSun 1:00 PM ET · GB −4.5 · O/U 44.5
CLE @ TBSun 1:00 PM ET · TB −8.5 · O/U 40.5
NO @ BALSun 1:00 PM ET · BAL −8.5 · O/U 47.5
CIN @ HOUSun 1:00 PM ET · HOU −3 · O/U 46.5
JAX @ DENSun 4:05 PM ET · DEN −2.5 · O/U 43.5
LV @ LACSun 4:05 PM ET · LAC −7 · O/U 44.5
WSH @ DALSun 4:25 PM ET · DAL −3.5 · O/U 51.5
SEA @ ARISun 4:25 PM ET · SEA −4.5 · O/U 41.5
MIA @ SFSun 4:25 PM ET · SF −12.5 · O/U 46.5
IND @ KCSun 8:20 PM ET · KC −6.5 · O/U 48.5
NYG @ LARMon 8:15 PM ET · LAR −7 · O/U 48.5

Week 1 sims graded

Favorite ML 11–4 · totals 7 over / 8 under

NE-SEA SEA 13–10HIT · UNDER
SF-LAR SF 27–LAR 7MISS · UNDER
ATL-PIT PIT 20–ATL 13HIT · UNDER
BAL-IND BAL 41–IND 23HIT · OVER
BUF-HOU BUF 36–HOU 31HIT · OVER
CHI-CAR CHI 59–CAR 37HIT · OVER
TB-CIN CIN 33–TB 27HIT · OVER
CLE-JAX JAX 34–CLE 10HIT · OVER
NO-DET DET 31–NO 30 OTHIT · OVER
NYJ-TEN NYJ 23–TEN 10MISS · UNDER
ARI-LAC ARI 26–LAC 14MISS · UNDER
GB-MIN MIN 39–GB 22HIT · OVER
MIA-LV LV 27–MIA 13HIT · UNDER
WSH-PHI PHI 24–WSH 22HIT · UNDER
DAL-NYG NYG 28–DAL 20MISS · UNDER
DEN-KC 8:15 PM ETOPEN · OPEN

Games

QB1 listed

Injury tape

Mon Sep 14, 2026

Weather

On each card

Injury report: Aug 26 IR/PUP flags only. Stadium type is on every card. Outdoor wind/rain posts when kickoff is inside seven days.

All 16 games · sim board · research — not automatic picks

Matchup	Model	Win % (model)	Fair win % (market)	Diff	Proj	Grade	Wx
Week 1 · Wed Sep 9 · FINAL SEA 13–10 · RIVAL	SEA	66%	62.6%	+3.4	19.5–25.3	B	OUTDOOR · Lumen Field
Week 1 · Thu Sep 10 · FINAL SF 27–LAR 7 · DIVISION · RIVAL	LAR	67.1%	62.6%	+4.5	21.1–27.5	B	OUTDOOR · Melbourne Cricket Ground
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL PIT 20–13	PIT	62.1%	59.9%	+2.2	19.1–23.7	C	OUTDOOR · Acrisure Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL BAL 41–23	BAL	64.7%	37.4%	-2.1	26.6–21.1	C	RETRACTABLE · Lucas Oil Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL BUF 36–31	HOU	51.1%	49.8%	+1.3	22–22.4	C	RETRACTABLE · NRG Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL CHI 59–37	CHI	57.4%	42.9%	-0.3	25.2–22.5	C	OUTDOOR · Bank of America Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL CIN 33–27	CIN	70.1%	64.7%	+5.4	21.4–29	B	OUTDOOR · Paycor Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL JAX 34–10	JAX	75.6%	76.6%	-1	15.6–25.3	C	OUTDOOR · EverBank Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL DET 31–30 OT	DET	80.3%	73.9%	+6.4	18.7–30.7	A	INDOOR · Ford Field
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL NYJ 23–10	TEN	57.3%	56.6%	+0.7	18.1–20.8	C	OUTDOOR · Nissan Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL ARI 26–14	LAC	78.7%	81.8%	-3.1	18.1–29.7	B	INDOOR · SoFi Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL MIN 39–22 · DIVISION · RIVAL	MIN	53.8%	52.2%	+1.6	21.9–23.3	C	INDOOR · U.S. Bank Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL LV 27–13	LV	63.7%	62.6%	+1.1	17.9–23.1	C	INDOOR · Allegiant Stadium
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL PHI 24–22 · DIVISION · RIVAL	PHI	69.4%	65.1%	+4.3	19.8–27	B	OUTDOOR · Lincoln Financial Field
Week 1 · Sun Sep 13 · FINAL NYG 28–20 · DIVISION · RIVAL	DAL	57.7%	43.4%	-1.1	25.5–22.9	C	OUTDOOR · MetLife Stadium
Week 1 · Mon Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET · DIVISION · RIVAL	KC	59.1%	57.4%	+1.7	20.1–23.6	C	OUTDOOR · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Win % vs fair win %

Win % is our model. We simulate the game 10,000 times. If Seattle wins 6,200 of those runs, the win % is 62%.

Fair win % is the sportsbook’s number with the juice taken out. That is what the market thinks before the book takes its cut.

Read them together. If the model says 68% and the fair market says 55%, the sim likes that team more than the price does. That is a disagreement — not an automatic bet.

The sportsbook’s cut is taken out so you see the real implied chance, not the juiced moneyline.

Example: Seattle −190 / New England +155. The juiced number makes Seattle look like a 65% shot. After the cut is removed, the fair chance is about 62%. Compare our sim to that 62%, not to the raw moneyline.

Week 1 wrapping · MNF DEN@KC tonight · Week 2 Thu DET@BUF

Wed Sep 9 · FINAL SEA 13–10 · Lumen Field

New England Patriots

LWWWW

SEA

Seattle Seahawks

WWWWW

Rival · Super Bowl LX rematch

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

SEA -3.5 -110

O/U 44.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 44.5

NE +155

SEA -190

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

NE 34%SEA 66%

Proj NE 19.5–SEA 25.3 · SMALL DIFFERENCE · +3.4 pp vs market

Fair win chance SEA 62.6% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Lumen FieldGrade BRival

Projected player props

Sam Darnold Pass yds 233.5-112
Jadarian Price Rush yds 50.5-110
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Rec yds 85.5-110

Projected TD scorers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba+105
Jadarian Price+125
Rhamondre Stevenson+150

Thu Sep 10 · FINAL SF 27–LAR 7 · Melbourne Cricket Ground

San Francisco 49ers

LWLWW

LAR

Los Angeles Rams

LWWWL

Division · NFC WestRival · NFC West rivalry

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

LAR -3.5 -108

O/U 48.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 48.5

SF +155

LAR -190

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

SF 32.9%LAR 67.1%

Proj SF 21.1–LAR 27.5 · SMALL DIFFERENCE · +4.5 pp vs market

Fair win chance LAR 62.6% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Melbourne Cricket GroundGrade BDivisionRival

Projected player props

Matthew Stafford Pass yds 265.5-114
Christian McCaffrey Rush yds 59.5-114
Puka Nacua Rec yds 90.5-114

Projected TD scorers

Christian McCaffrey-160
Kyren Williams-140
Puka Nacua+115

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL PIT 20–13 · Acrisure Stadium

ATL

Atlanta Falcons

WWWWL

PIT

Pittsburgh Steelers

LWLWW

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

PIT -3 -110

O/U 42.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 42.5

ATL +140

PIT -165

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

ATL 37.9%PIT 62.1%

Proj ATL 19.1–PIT 23.7 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · +2.2 pp vs market

Fair win chance PIT 59.9% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Acrisure StadiumGrade C

Projected player props

Aaron Rodgers Pass ydswatch
Jaylen Warren Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Bijan Robinson-155
Rico Dowdle+110
Jaylen Warren+125

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL BAL 41–23 · Lucas Oil Stadium

BAL

Baltimore Ravens

LWLWL

IND

Indianapolis Colts

LLLLL

RETRACTABLE ROOF · roof status unconfirmed

Spread

IND +3.5 -110

O/U 47.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 48.5 → 47.5

BAL -190

IND +155

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

BAL 64.7%IND 35.3%

Proj BAL 26.6–IND 21.1 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · -2.1 pp vs market

Fair win chance IND 37.4% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

RETRACTABLE · Lucas Oil StadiumJosh Downs missed practiceGrade C

Projected player props

Daniel Jones Pass ydswatch
Jonathan Taylor Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Derrick Henry-205
Jonathan Taylor-175
Zay Flowers+180

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL BUF 36–31 · NRG Stadium

BUF

Buffalo Bills

LWWLW

HOU

Houston Texans

LWWWW

RETRACTABLE ROOF · roof status unconfirmed

Spread

HOU +1.5 -110

O/U 44.5

Move

-1 → +1.5

Tot 44.5

BUF -110

HOU -108

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

BUF 48.9%HOU 51.1%

Proj BUF 22–HOU 22.4 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · +1.3 pp vs market

Fair win chance HOU 49.8% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

RETRACTABLE · NRG StadiumGrade C

Projected player props

Josh Allen Pass yds 223.5-114
James Cook Rush yds 74.5-114
Nico Collins Rec yds 60.5-114

Projected TD scorers

James Cook-115
David Montgomery+100
Josh Allen+120

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL CHI 59–37 · Bank of America Stadium

CHI

Chicago Bears

LWLLW

CAR

Carolina Panthers

LLLWL

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

CAR +2.5 -102

O/U 47.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 47.5

CHI -145

CAR +125

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

CHI 57.4%CAR 42.6%

Proj CHI 25.2–CAR 22.5 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · -0.3 pp vs market

Fair win chance CAR 42.9% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Bank of America StadiumGrade C

Projected player props

Bryce Young Pass ydswatch
Chuba Hubbard Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

D'Andre Swift-125
Chuba Hubbard+120
Colston Loveland+160

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL CIN 33–27 · Paycor Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WLLLL

CIN

Cincinnati Bengals

LWWLL

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

CIN -4 -108

O/U 50.5

Move

-3.5 → -4

Tot 51.5 → 50.5

TB +170

CIN -210

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

TB 29.9%CIN 70.1%

Proj TB 21.4–CIN 29 · SMALL DIFFERENCE · +5.4 pp vs market

Fair win chance CIN 64.7% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Paycor StadiumGrade B

Projected player props

Joe Burrow Pass ydswatch
Chase Brown Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Chase Brown-160
Ja'Marr Chase-105
Bucky Irving+100

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL JAX 34–10 · EverBank Stadium

CLE

Cleveland Browns

WWLLL

JAX

Jacksonville Jaguars

LWWWW

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

JAX -7.5 -108

O/U 40.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 40.5

CLE +310

JAX -400

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

CLE 24.4%JAX 75.6%

Proj CLE 15.6–JAX 25.3 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · -1 pp vs market

Fair win chance JAX 76.6% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · EverBank StadiumGrade C

Projected player props

Trevor Lawrence Pass ydswatch
Travis Etienne Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Bhayshul Tuten+125
Quinshon Judkins+145
Parker Washington+195

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL DET 31–30 OT · Ford Field

New Orleans Saints

LWWWW

DET

Detroit Lions

WLLLW

INDOOR · WEATHER-NEUTRAL · weather-neutral

Spread

DET -7 -110

O/U 49.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 49.5

NO +270

DET -325

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

NO 19.7%DET 80.3%

Proj NO 18.7–DET 30.7 · MATERIAL MODEL DIFFERENCE · +6.4 pp vs market

Fair win chance DET 73.9% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

INDOOR · Ford FieldGrade A

Projected player props

Jared Goff Pass ydswatch
Jahmyr Gibbs Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Jahmyr Gibbs-265
Amon-Ra St. Brown+120
Travis Etienne Jr.+120

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL NYJ 23–10 · Nissan Stadium

NYJ

New York Jets

LLLLL

TEN

Tennessee Titans

LLWLW

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

TEN -1.5 -110

O/U 38.5

Move

-2.5 → -1.5

Tot 39.5 → 38.5

NYJ +120

TEN -145

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

NYJ 42.7%TEN 57.3%

Proj NYJ 18.1–TEN 20.8 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · +0.7 pp vs market

Fair win chance TEN 56.6% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Nissan StadiumGrade C

Projected player props

Cam Ward Pass ydswatch
Tony Pollard Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Breece Hall+120
Tony Pollard+145
Tyjae Spears+210

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL ARI 26–14 · SoFi Stadium

ARI

Arizona Cardinals

LLLLL

LAC

Los Angeles Chargers

LLLWW

INDOOR · WEATHER-NEUTRAL · weather-neutral

Spread

LAC -10.5 -110

O/U 47.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 46.5 → 47.5

ARI +425

LAC -600

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

ARI 21.3%LAC 78.7%

Proj ARI 18.1–LAC 29.7 · SMALL DIFFERENCE · -3.1 pp vs market

Fair win chance LAC 81.8% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

INDOOR · SoFi StadiumARI 6 IRGrade B

Projected player props

Justin Herbert Pass ydswatch
Omarion Hampton Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

Omarion Hampton-140
Jeremiyah Love+140
Tyler Allgeier+175

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL MIN 39–22 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Green Bay Packers

LLLLL

MIN

Minnesota Vikings

WWWWW

Division · NFC NorthRival · NFC North rivalry

INDOOR · WEATHER-NEUTRAL · weather-neutral

Spread

MIN -1 -110

O/U 45

Move

unchanged

Tot 45

GB +100

MIN -120

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

GB 46.2%MIN 53.8%

Proj GB 21.9–MIN 23.3 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · +1.6 pp vs market

Fair win chance MIN 52.2% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

INDOOR · U.S. Bank StadiumGrade CDivisionRival

Projected player props

Jordan Love Pass yds 234.5-114
Josh Jacobs Rush yds 52.5-114
Christian Watson Rec yds 51.5-114

Projected TD scorers

Josh Jacobs-170
Jordan Mason+140
Aaron Jones+145

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL LV 27–13 · Allegiant Stadium

MIA

Miami Dolphins

LWLLW

Las Vegas Raiders

WLLLL

INDOOR · WEATHER-NEUTRAL · weather-neutral

Spread

LV -3.5 -110

O/U 40.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 40.5

MIA +155

LV -190

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

MIA 36.4%LV 63.7%

Proj MIA 17.9–LV 23.1 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · +1.1 pp vs market

Fair win chance LV 62.6% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

INDOOR · Allegiant StadiumLV 6 IRGrade C

Projected player props

Kirk Cousins Pass ydswatch
Ashton Jeanty Rush ydswatch
QB / RB / WR Rec ydswatch

Projected TD scorers

De'Von Achane-105
Ashton Jeanty+120
Brock Bowers+190

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL PHI 24–22 · Lincoln Financial Field

WSH

Washington Commanders

WLLWL

PHI

Philadelphia Eagles

LLWWW

Division · NFC EastRival · NFC East rivalry

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

PHI -4.5 -108

O/U 46.5

Move

-5 → -4.5

Tot 46.5

WSH +175

PHI -210

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

WSH 30.6%PHI 69.4%

Proj WSH 19.8–PHI 27 · SMALL DIFFERENCE · +4.3 pp vs market

Fair win chance PHI 65.1% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · Lincoln Financial FieldGrade BDivisionRival

Projected player props

Jalen Hurts Pass yds 214.5-114
Saquon Barkley Rush yds 74.5-114
DeVonta Smith Rec yds 66.5-114

Projected TD scorers

Saquon Barkley-140
Jalen Hurts+115
Jacory Croskey-Merritt+130

Sun Sep 13 · FINAL NYG 28–20 · MetLife Stadium

DAL

Dallas Cowboys

LWLLL

NYG

New York Giants

WWLLL

Division · NFC EastRival · NFC East rivalry

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

NYG +2.5 -102

O/U 48.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 48.5

DAL -145

NYG +120

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

DAL 57.7%NYG 42.3%

Proj DAL 25.5–NYG 22.9 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · -1.1 pp vs market

Fair win chance NYG 43.4% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · MetLife StadiumNYG 7 IR · Calvin Austin III torn ACLGrade CDivisionRival

Projected player props

Dak Prescott Pass yds 260.5-114
Javonte Williams Rush yds 70.5-114
CeeDee Lamb Rec yds 76.5-114

Projected TD scorers

Javonte Williams-175
Cam Skattebo-120
CeeDee Lamb+115

Mon Sep 14 · 8:15 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

DEN

Denver Broncos

LWWWL

Kansas City Chiefs

LLLLL

Division · AFC WestRival · AFC West rivalry

OUTDOOR · wind / rain posts inside 7 days of kick

Spread

KC -2.5 -118

O/U 43.5

Move

unchanged

Tot 42.5 → 43.5

DEN +125

KC -150

MGMDKFDPIN

Posted number is BetMGM. Shop DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle — the juice can differ.

DEN 40.9%KC 59.1%

Proj DEN 20.1–KC 23.6 · MODEL AGREES WITH MARKET · +1.7 pp vs market

Fair win chance KC 57.4% — juice removed, not the raw moneyline.

OUTDOOR · GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumGrade CDivisionRival

Projected player props

Bo Nix Pass yds 227.5-114
Kenneth Walker III Rush yds 59.5-114
Rashee Rice Rec yds 59.5-114

Projected TD scorers

Kenneth Walker III-125
J.K. Dobbins+140
Rashee Rice+155